In a piece entitled “Hyperinflation Will Drive Gold To Unthinkable Heights,” von Greyerz noted that there are many indicators pointing to “an imminent start of a hyperinflationary era.” These indicators consist of a “fiscal gap widening at alarming rates in many major economies, commodity prices at all-time highs, long term interest rates rising, most currencies falling, and precious metals at all-time highs against most currencies.”
Accordingly, von Greyerz forecasted that “realistic targets” for the gold price in the next few years are anywhere from $6,000 to $11,000 per ounce. The long-time gold price bull contends that “physical gold (and silver) will protect investors against losing virtually 100% of the purchasing power of their money.” Furthermore, holding physical gold stored outside the banking system, is “the ultimate form of wealth protection both against a deflationary collapse and a hyperinflationary destruction of paper money.”
Hyperinflation due to fiscal pressure: that's the settled forecast for the beast. Back in the 1970s, it was claimed that hyperinflation would result from political pressure that elbowed governments into inflating to avoid depression. That prediction was scotched by Paul Volker's tighening at the beginning of the '80s. Some of the same argument is floating around now, but it is shifting to focus upon a much higher level of fiscal vulnerability. Could a new Volker raise rates to double digits now? Not with interest payments swallowing up $413.95 billion of the government's budget. That's 11.65% of total FY 2010 outlays of $3,552 billion. According to the U.S. Treasury Department, the same source for the $413.95 billion number, the average interest rate on Treasury debt was 3.007% on total interest-bearing instruments. Even if the budget is magically balanced from this day forwards, and spending frozen overall, an increase to an average rate of 6.45% would drive interest expense to 25% of the total budget.
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