Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Not Acting The Way It Should

BonTerra Resources released a drill result that was quite good: 7.00 m of drilled core with 14.84 g/t of gold therein. This hole was one of two; the other had 11.75 m of 4.71 g/t of gold. These two holes were the best so far from its Eastern Extension property.

And yet, the stock dropped. The results were released before the market opened. As of 2 PM ET, BonTerra was down 4 cents at 50.

This one-year chart, from, has a clue as to why:

As late as last October, BonTerra stock was under 15 cents. It rocketed up in November and reached 70 cents. After a pullback, it rallied again but didn't reach the old highs.

Using this stock as an indicator, it looks like the white-hot exploration market is cooling down. As for BonTerra, today's disappointment suggests the stock went too far, too fast.

The Moral Of The Story: Its a sad one but an old one. When a trend appears to be most solid, it's about to turn. Trends often overshoot, and are self-reinforced by confirmation bias. Thus, a trend appears to be an all-but-proven fact at the time it falls apart. We seem to be at that time now, although there's still a lot of froth in the juniors market.

Disclosure: None - I don't own a share of BonTerra.

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