Thursday, April 21, 2011

Reuters Straw Poll Garners Average Price Forecast For 2015: $1,700

Reuters' straw poll of twelve analysts got an average - presumably, the mean - of $1,700 for gold in 2015.
A poll of 12 analysts by Reuters found the average price forecast for gold in 2015 was $1,700, a 12.7pc rise on the all-time high of $1,508 reached today.

The forecasts ranged from $1,000 an ounce to $2,750, but even if the price reached the top end of that, the pace of gains would be slower than in recent years.

In other words, they're conservative and/or cautious. Assuming that "2015" means April 21, 2015, the 12.7% rise is over four years: it translates into a 3.03% annual gain. Even the most daring, as the article indicates, forecasts an annual growth rate of 16.4%. Over the last ten years, since April 20, 2001 using the PM fix, the metal has risen 18.99% annually.

So, even the most optimistic forecast has gold slowing down from its ten-year growth rate. The most likely reason for that relative conservatism is expectations for a mini-bear market in the interim - or for a full one from the more pessimistic analysts.

What's lacking in all of them is the enthusiasm that typically accompanies a mania.

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