Commerzbank Technical Analyst: Gold May Go To $1,560

Commerzbank's latest forecast from its technical-analysis department is pretty low-key given gold's performance so far. It says gold might go to $1,560 by the end of the year, which would be about a 7.6% gain from current prices.

The $1,560 level is based on point and figure analysis, Commerzbank analyst Axel Rudolph said in a report on April 8. The attached chart shows gold may first climb to about $1,515, the 161.8 percent extension of the February 2010 to June 2010 gain, projected from the July low, one of the levels singled out in so-called Fibonacci analysis.

“Other point and figure targets are at $1,515 and $1,530, so the $1,515 zone seems important, together with the psychological $1,500 level,” Rudolph said by e-mail yesterday. A price of $1,500 may be achieved before three months, he wrote....

Given that analysts are normally optimistic, this forecast looks unusually cautious. They may be lowballing so as to score a hit, but their relatively low target hints that there's some worry over gold's high price.