Tuesday, March 29, 2011

James Turk Says Gold Accelerating In Hyperbolic Pattern

Drawing a distinction between a parabolic rise and a hyperbolic one, claiming that the latter is faster, James Turk points to an acceleration in gold's rose over the past few years.

He includes a chart of gold in U.S. funds, one of three charts in his commentary, which shows what he's talking about:

His commentary on it:
From 2000 to about 2006, the gold price was confined within a linear uptrend channel, marked by the green parallel lines on the above chart. Thereafter, gold’s pattern changed to what looks like a parabola, but is actually a hyperbola because the above chart is prepared on a log scale.

This observation means that the gold price is rising at an accelerating rate, so there is in my view only one logical conclusion that can be made from this chart. Given that gold remains the world’s numĂ©raire by which things are measured because it is money, the other so-called ‘money’ being measured in the above chart – namely, the U.S. dollar – is losing purchasing power at an accelerating rate....

It's a fascinating chart because log scale illustrates compond growth. A linear trend on such a chart means that gold's value is componding at a fixed rate. As best I can tell, the linear channel's slope translates into compunded annual growth of about 11%.

A hperbolic, or even parabolic, rise on a log chart meant the rate of compound growth is itself accelerating. If you had a tax-free bank account whose interest rate goes up smoothly as your balance grows, that balance would show parabolic growth if plotted on a log chart. Such a rise is characteristic of a market that's heading towards a blow-off top.

I have to say, though, that gold looks fairly linear after 2009 or so. The blow-off top may not be here yet. Should gold shoot up this year, it would be consistent with Mr. Turk's hyperbolic rise, but it would have to jack up to more than it did last year (a minimum of 25%, say) and would have to get rolling soon.

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