Monday, March 7, 2011

An Out-Of-The-Box Forecast, To Put It Mildly

At the 2011 Propector's and Developer's Association Conference this weekend in Toronto, Ian Gordon made a call for $4,000 gold. Although high, a number that size isn't that unusual in the hard-core goldbug world. What made Mr. Gordon's stick out was another number he tied his gold forecast to:
Mr. Gordon, who has made a name for himself as perhaps the ultimate stock market bear, maintained in his presentation that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is headed to 1,000, while gold is headed to US$4,000.

You read that right. Mr. Gordon, publisher of the Longwave Analyst report, is a believer in the so-called Kondratieff Cycle, which evaluates markets based on long-term trends. He believes we are at the stage when all the excess debt has to be flushed out of the system, leading to an utter collapse in the stock market.
He believes a debt implosion, once QE is done, with will trigger the more than 90% collapse he's forecasting.

The article describing his call was charitable enough to point out that Mr. Gordon has had all of his assets in gold since 2000. His forecast is pretty off-the-wall, but his results are hard to question.

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